For those NOT a fan…
The fact that this electorate model, which has correctly predicted EVERY President since 1980, says Obama will not win?
Not really much of surprise.
[via HuffPo]Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012
Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.
Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” Bickers said in a press statement.
To predict the race’s outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado. [Read More]
But for those who are fans?
Really, the truth of the reality of an Obama loss all comes down to some basic reasoning.
The Democratic party is focused on all the WRONG things.
With the economy in the crapper, what with people worrying about jobs, the price of gas, the price of food and how in the hell they are going to pay for it all…
What does the Democratic Party focus their election campaign on?
Abortion.
…
……
*crickets*
…
……
Yeah…
Bad idea there guys.
[via HotAir] Voters fret about economy, Dems focus on abortion
There will be a lot of talk about abortion, all of it from one side. But not all Democrats agree with Fluke and her fellow speakers when it comes to abortion; in May of this year, Gallup found 34 percent of Democrats identify themselves as pro-life. And, perhaps more important to President Obama’s re-election prospects, 47 percent of independents describe themselves as pro-life.
Why would a party that wants to attract the largest possible number of votes this November make such extravagant pronouncements on abortion, knowing that one-third of its own members and nearly one-half of independents disagree? …
The rational design behind all this is that Barack Obama can’t be re-elected without winning big among women. The newest Gallup polling shows equal gender gaps: Mitt Romney leads the president 50 percent to 42 percent among men, while the president leads Romney 50 to 42 percent among women. It’s a gap that has been consistent for months now, and Obama hopes to eke out a victory by making a few more women nervous about voting Republican in the last weeks of the campaign. “The Obama campaign believes that college-educated women, and the margin the president could win among them, will decide the election,” says a well-informed Democratic strategist not connected to the campaign. [Read More]
The fact that it is indeed the Romney/Ryan campaign who has their laser focus on the main issue everyone is concerned with…
The economy?
Very much why they are surging, and continue to do so, gaining ground, while the Obama campaign only loses it.
And more every day.
But surely all Obama would have to do, to turn this constant, devolving loss of public support around, would be talk about all he has done–Successfully!– to improve the economy, right?
Well…
About that:
[via HotAir] In 2009, the Obama administration approved a set of loan guarantees to Solyndra that totaled over $520
million, which supposedly would have created thousands of new jobs. Most of that money, $300 million, went to build a new manufacturing plant for the solar panels that cost more to build than the market price they could fetch. For some reason, the Department of Energy and the White House found this to be a solid business model. Eventually, the company went bankrupt despite an effort by the Obama administration to bring new cash into Solyndra — by illegally subordinating taxpayer standing in event of a collapse.
The bankruptcy continued to unwind this week with the sale of the new facility. The $300 million facility managed to go for 30 cents on the dollar:
Seagate Technology Plc (STX.O), maker of hard drives and storage devices, has agreed to pay $90.3 million for the former manufacturing plant and headquarters building of bankrupt Solyndra LLC, which was financed by a controversial government loan, according to bankruptcy court documents.
Seagate’s offer will be considered an initial bid, or “stalking horse,” which could be topped by a competing offer of at least $1 million more when an auction is held, according to court documents filed late Wednesday. A hearing to set the terms and date for the auction and declare Seagate’s offer the stalking horse has been set for September 24. …
Solyndra’s Fremont, California, building cost more than $300 million and was completed in 2010, according to prior court documents.
What platform, does it seem, has Obama chosen to run on this election season?
Abortion.
Not saying that is a bad issue, by any means…
However since it is not THE main issue on everyone’s mind?
Oh, I can pretty much guess how it will turn out for him…
One Term.
It’s all he will get.
Simple as that.
I am not sure Obama campaign is focus only on abortion but when some of the republicans tell that they would outlaw abortions to victims of rape and incest, well Obama campaign would be fool if they don’t point that. When Republicans candidates think that it’s not legitimate rape when woman conceive form the rape and that rape is another way of conception, I think it is important to point Republican platform.
Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan says that he personally believes that rape is just another “method of conception” and not an excuse to allow abortions.
During an interview with WJHL this week, Ryan was asked his view about Rep. Todd Akin, who recently asserted that women could not get pregnant from “legitimate rape.”
“Specifically where you stand when it comes to rape, and when it comes to the issue of should it be legal for a woman to be able to get an abortion if she’s raped?” WJHL reporter Josh Smith wondered.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/08/24/ryan-on-abortion-exceptions-rape-is-just-another-method-of-conception/
Not saying abortion is not an issue, however it is NOT the one people are concerned with on a day-to-day basis. And yes, they ARE focused on abortion. It goes with their “Republican war against women’ position, which is manufactured. Have Republicans said some stupid things…Pffft, yeah. Show me one political party which hasn’t said stupid stuff on a regular basis! Sorry, but the Dems pushing Abortion now at this point in the campaign is just a ridiculous move on their part. Taking THIS political position, making it the lead in their campaign NOW? I horrible idea. Again…This reason? Why they are falling behind, plain and simple.
Its just horrible strategy.
Maybe, but if the possible law makers with idea that rape is not a rape but God blessing if the child is conceived get the power to change laws to fit their beliefs, it is not small matter.
What would stop some lawyer to get off the rapist if the victim got pregnant. He can argue it wasn’t a rape.
Under the banner it’s economy, stupid, many unpleasant changes for women are happening. In most states with republicans in power, the abortion is outlaw which put many women’s life in danger.
And the democrats are not focus on abortion per se. The Republicans gave them that option.
What is horrible is possibility what some women will face in the future.
The fact is, it is not a matter elections are won or lost on. The economy is just such a point. And at this point in the election, it is a supremely stupid move on their part. And if Obama loses this election? It will be because they chose abortion to be their lead position, instead of the economy. And yes, the democrats ARE focused on abortion, or should I say the Republicans position on abortion…And they are because they have no ground to stand on when it comes to the economy. And they know it. Obama is losing popularity points every day because of this lack of focus on what the people are really concerned with. If Obama shifted his focus on the economy, he would be winning now. And fact of the matter is…He’s not.
So maybe you can enlighten me and I am serious, what is Romney/republican plan for the economy that is appealing to you. I would really like to know. I have to say i have no clue what is their plan.
The main points that appeal to me? Lower taxes to spur a boom in small business, reduce restrictive regulation which are shackling small business (The leading employer in the US) and their plan to focus on creating our energy independence, supporting the energy sector jobs to grow this sector (where Obama has shrunk it), thereby creating for millions of Americans. There is more of there plan, but that is the basic gist of their plan which appeals to me. It is a plotted course of action. Decisive.
Whereas Obama’s plan? Continuing to do the same he has been doing…Which obvious does NOT work.
The contrast of these two plans? Again, this is why Romney is gaining in the polls. And quickly.
Thanks for taking the time to explain. I appreciate it.
Economic plan looks all right. I don’t like this “what is a legitimate rape” question and I don’t see the reason why Republican choose to start to talk about when the rape is rape now in the middle of the election , but American politics is very complicated with so many different angles that must be a reason they did. They probably thought it would appealed to some of their supporters.
Anyway, my interest in politics is marginal at best.
I have no horse here, except for our bet.”laughs” and I will enjoy reading the story that you will write for me. “laughs”
I was joking, but I wish that this election gives you what you are expecting.
I don’t see why they did either. That one stupid idiot got it started, and it SHOULD have been the end of his political career. I cannot understand for the life of me why it wasn’t. And yes, American politics is very complicated, and more often than not just full of a lot of BS from BOTH sides. The trick is? To find the side you despise the least, and go with them. But then give them just a few weeks after any given election? Oh, and you will probably hate them as well.
Our bet? Yeah…I am sure you will enjoy it. Even if I lose, still, I know I will to a certain degree. It will be one bet I won’t mind paying at all, if it comes to that.
But something tells me? Oh, I probably won’t.
Yeah, I know. That’s a reason I try to stay away from the politics.
Usually most politicians have attention span of the gnat.
Hahaha
Nice and classy.
At least we are enjoying the journey while having fun and laughs.
Exactly right…Very much the point!